Fueling the Divide: An Analysis of Cooking Fuel Choices and their Contribution to Urban- Rural Health Disparities from Air Pollution in Nigeria

Household air pollution (HAP) from solid fuel combustion remains a critical public healthchallenge in Nigeria, contributing to significant morbidity and mortality. This study investigatesthe disparities in reliance on polluting cooking fuels between urban and rural populations. Using alongitudinal dataset from the World Health Organization (WHO) spanning from 1990 to 2022, thispaper employs both exploratory data analysis and a machine learning approach to analyze the keydrivers of this public health issue. The analysis reveals a stark and persistent divide: while urbanareas show a gradual decline in the use of polluting fuels, rural areas exhibit a near-static reliancerate exceeding 95%. This profound inequity directly impacts several Sustainable DevelopmentGoals (SDGs), including SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), SDG 7 (Affordable and CleanEnergy), and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities). The associated health burden is substantial, withHAP responsible for over 50,000 attributable deaths annually. A Random Forest regression modelshowed that the year of data collection was the strongest predictor, indicating that the slow shifttoward cleaner fuels is occurring mainly in urban areas. These findings underscore the urgent needfor targeted, inclusive policy interventions focused on Nigeria's rural population to mitigate thesevere health consequences of HAP and bridge the profound energy divide.